The hottest topic in cross-border circles these days is no longer how to start a store, how to store, how to advertise, theInstead, it's “How exactly will cross-border e-commerce be taxed after 2026?”Especially after the recent news about 2% approved, 4% transition period, 2026 full checking, Safeway model, three streams in one, many cross-border bosses suddenly began to panic. 

Because everyone slowly realized: this change is not simply a “higher tax”, but the entire cross-border industry, from the “gray-scale era” into the "gray-scale era".“The Age of Sunshine.”. A lot of playstyles that were fine by default in the past may be revisited in the future.

"one" radical in Chinese characters (Kangxi radical 1),Why has this policy shaken the entire cross-border community?

Because in the past, in the cross-border e-commerce industry, there has actually been a problem:

“There's a lot of money to be made, but the fiscal logic isn't complete.”

In the past, the industry's rapid growth phase was a major concern:

• How to expand?
• How to open more stores
• How to start fast

So a lot of typical patterns slowly developed:

• multi-store
• multisubjective
• multi-platform (computing)
• unified operation
• centralized purchasing
• Profit pooling

Simply put: many companies are ostensibly many subjects.

In reality: it's a unified set of teams.

Why did this model grow so quickly in the past?

Because: extremely efficient. One team can run dozens or even hundreds of stores.

Therefore, in the past decade, a large number of companies in the cross-border industry are actually using a logic similar to the “Safeway model”.

二,What is the Safeway model?

This is the most discussed word by many people these days.

Simply understood, it's core logic is:

Multi-store front-end and centralized back-end.

For example:

Front End:

• multisubjective
• multi-store
• multi-platform (computing)

Rear end:

• Unified Operations Team
• consolidated procurement
• unified warehouse
• unified advertising
• Harmonization of financial services

Why was this model particularly popular in the past?

Because cross-border e-commerce naturally is:

• Extremely high number of SKUs
• There are a lot of stores.
• Very many platforms

If it was all “one store, one system”, the operating costs would be horrendous. So the industry naturally evolved:“Decentralized front-end + centralized back-end” structure.This is actually the core logic behind the early and rapid rise of many cross-border big sellers.

surname San,Why the sudden emphasis on “Safeway compliance”?

Because the problem with many store group companies in the past was:

“Formally independent, but highly mixed in practice.”

The most typical situation:

• There are a lot of store subjects
• The actual team is a set of
• Harmonization of funds
• Uniform accounting for profits
• Store companies are just shells.

Previously, during the industry's rapid growth phase, the default was, “As long as we can make money.” But not anymore.

Because: platform data is becoming more and more transparent. At the same time, data from tax, customs, banks and payment systems are becoming more and more penetrating. Many of the previously “unexplained” structures will become more and more risky in the future.

四,A lot of people don't get it: it's not 2% that's really important this time around.

The main concern of many bosses now is, “Can we continue to press 2%?”

But really what really matters is this:

The state has told the industry in no uncertain terms that after 2026, checkoffs will become mainstream.

That means a lot in the past:

• zero declaration
• buy orders to sell goods (e.g. for export)
• Private Card Collections
• Data inconsistencies
• Shell Body Operations

It's all going to get harder and harder in the future. Because the regulatory logic has changed completely. The focus used to be: “Did you file a tax return?”. In the future, the focus will become: “Is your business really running this way or not?”.

五,Why is “2% -> 4% -> Checking Accounts” like a “buffer period”?

Many people in the industry now see 2025 as the last “window period” for the cross-border industry. Because now the policy direction has been very obvious:Pre-2025: low rates authorized. late 2025: gradual increase. beginning 2026: full check.

Behind this rhythm is actually giving the industry a chance:

Allow companies to gradually transition from a historical gray structure, to a sunlit structure.

Note that the key point here is that the state is not “one size fits all”.

Rather: the industry was given time to adjust.

6,What's really dangerous in the future is not necessarily taxes, but “three streams of inconsistency.”

This is the issue that many sellers are most likely to overlook right now. What taxes will really focus on in the future is, in fact: three streams in one. That is:

• flow of goods
• financial flows
• invoice flow

Must be able to correspond. Why?

Because therein lies the problem for many cross-border sellers in the past:

• The store is owned by Company A.
• The money was collected by Company B.
• The shipment came from Company C.
• Costs in Company D

This used to be common during the industry's rapid expansion phase. But in the future: platform data, payment data, customs data, tax data, it will be easier and easier to cross-validate.

That is to say:

“Poorly explained” can be a risk in itself.

七,Many sellers began to panic: is it impossible to do store group in the future?

In fact, not necessarily, here many people are prone to misunderstanding. In the future, the real eliminated, not “store group”. Rather:

“False Subjects, False Operations, False Links”.

This is very important. Because now the policy has actually released a signal: the State has not completely rejected the Safeway modelTheThat is, the future:

• Can be multi-store
• Can be operated in a unified manner
• Costs can be attributed

But the premise is:

• Operational realism
• clear link
• (math.) a principal correspondence
• Reasonable financial and tax

八,Why will 2026 eliminate a large number of cross-border sellers?

Because the problem with many companies is not operations at all.

Rather: structure.

The following types of businesses in particular will be under increasing pressure in the future:

• The main body of the store is just the shell
• Private card bulk collections
• Chronic financial disorganization
• The data doesn't match.
• Long-term zero declaration
• Unable to explain true business relationships

These issues may have blurred past before.

But in the future: as data penetration becomes more and more powerful, many businesses will find that their biggest risk is not in the platform. Instead, it's in the treasury.

九,In the future, the real value may be the “sunlighting ability.”

This is the biggest change in the entire industry.

The industry used to spell it out:

• Who dares?
• Who's expanding fast?
• Who Stores More

And the future is getting spelled out:

• Who is more structurally stable
• Who has more regularized accounts
• Whose data is more authentic
• Who's in it for the long haul

Because the cross-border industry has entered the second half. The probability is that the companies that will really survive in the future will have:

• Financial and tax capacity
• organizational capacity
• Risk Control Capability
• Long-term operational capacity

Instead, it's just going to be: pave the way.

十,The most realistic advice for cross-border sellers

The most important thing to do now is not to frantically study “whether taxes can continue to be low”, but to do three things quickly while there is still a window of opportunity.

First, reorganize the real business chain, including who operates, who collects, who purchases, and who bears the profit.

Second, start to establish a complete accounting system, because after 2026, the checking of accounts will become more and more common, the future advertising costs, platform commissions, logistics costs, overseas warehouse costs, will be more and more important. Thirdly, don't be superstitious about “extreme tax avoidance”, what is really safe in the future must be “real business + reasonable finance and tax”, instead of constantly looking for gray-scale loopholes.

return (to a previous condition)[Cross-border e-commerce tax complianceWe will arrange a tax consultant to do a one-on-one risk diagnosis for you free of charge and generate a 2026 Cross-border E-commerce Compliance and Rectification Program exclusively for you.