In 2026, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was buzzing with activity. In the first half of the year, 84 new stocks went public, raising HK$208 billion—double the amount from the same period the previous year—ranking second globally, behind only the Nasdaq; on July 9, seven companies listed simultaneously, setting a peak for the year. It was not uncommon to see posts on social media saying, ”I got three today.”

But this wave is different from the ”blind buying” trend of 2020–2021. On the first day, the average gain was 61%, and the break-even rate was 14%—which looks tempting. However, while AI semiconductor stocks doubled on their first day, biotech stocks from the 2018A batch saw a -56% drop; the divergence between winners and losers is more extreme than in any previous round. If you want to get involved, you’ll need to understand the mechanics first.

01

The platform has changed: The public offering consists of only 10%.

Many people think that subscribing to new shares means scrambling to get all of them, but in fact, when a Hong Kong-listed stock is offered globally,90% is an international offering(Institutional and high-net-worth professional investors); retail investors have access only to the public offering of 10%.

Let’s break down these 10% offerings further: Group A (subscription amount ≤ HK$5 million, including financing) is the main arena for retail investors; Group B (> HK$5 million) is the pool for institutional investors. Half of the public offering shares are allocated to each group, and the allocation rates are calculated independently for each group.

So don’t be fooled by the ”208 billion in fundraising”—the lion’s share goes to institutional investors, and there’s only a tiny portion left for retail investors.

If you’re in a similar situation—you have some spare cash and want to participate in Hong Kong IPO subscriptions but are worried about the stock price falling below the offering price or not getting allocated shares—feel free to scan the QR code to contact Qicaiying’s online customer service (WeChat/Phone: 18620388671), and we’ll help you set up a comprehensive, compliant solution.

02

Group A, Group B, and the "Red Shoes" Mechanism

Group A has the ”Red Shoe Mechanism” as a safety net for retail investors: it first guarantees one lot per person, and any remaining lots are allocated on a pro-rata basis according to the number of lots applied for. The lot with the highest allocation rate is allocated first, and the marginal allocation rate decreases as the process progresses.

For example, if the winning rate for one lot of a particular stock is 101 TP3T, bidding for two lots might result in a total of only 171 TP3T (with a marginal return of 71 TP3T for the second lot), while bidding for three lots might result in a total of 211 TP3T (with a marginal return of 41 TP3T for the third lot)—the returns do not add up linearly. Therefore, the ”one lot strategy” is often the most cost-effective for investors with limited capital.

Group B uses a simple, straightforward approach based on a percentage of the total amount, but counterintuitively, if there’s a tight supply at the top of Group B (just over 5 million), you might only get a few lots out of several million, which actually reduces capital efficiency. Experienced traders often target the ”tail of Group A” (close to 5 million), which can sometimes be more profitable than the top of Group B.

03

Margin Financing: It Amplifies Your Stakes—and Your Risks

Margin trading is when you pay a margin of 10% to 50%, and the brokerage firm multiplies your subscription quota several times over; investors use it to secure more shares in popular stocks. The advantages are obvious, but the disadvantages are just as clear: you have to pay interest on the margin loan,Losses are magnified by leverage when a stock trades below its IPO priceThe

The costs associated with subscribing to new shares in 2026 also include: a brokerage commission of approximately 11 TP3T of the subscription amount, a Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) fee of 0.00271 TP3T, a Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK) fee of 0.005651 TP3T, and a new share subscription handling fee (which varies by brokerage firm). If you sell after being allocated shares, you’ll also have to pay a stamp duty of 0.1%. Deduct these amounts before calculating the total cost.

We recommend using idle funds for this, setting a spending limit, and spreading your investments across multiple stocks rather than concentrating them in a single one—don’t let participating in new share offerings affect your daily expenses.

04

The Dark Market and Key Dates

Subscription Process: The subscription period typically lasts 3 to 4 business days → Pricing Date → Announcement of Allotment Results → Refund Date (funds for unsuccessful applicants are released) → Listing Date. Allotment results are usually notified one day before the listing date, and the shares are automatically credited to the account.

The ”dark pool,” unique to the Hong Kong stock market, is an over-the-counter trading platform provided by brokerages prior to a company's official listing. It allows trading after an allocation is secured but before the listing, and is commonly used by experienced investors to lock in profits or cut losses in advance.

Note: Each investor may subscribe to each new stock offering using only one brokerage account; duplicate applications across multiple accounts will be invalidated—don’t try to be clever.

05

How to Pick Tickets for the 2026 Event

Not every stock is worth buying. Consider these four factors: the company’s fundamentals (earnings, industry outlook), valuation level, the underwriter’s track record, and market sentiment. Well-known brands with stable earnings and reasonable valuations are typically more popular.

In 2026, there will be 552 companies in the IPO pipeline, with semiconductors, AI, 18A biotech, and new energy leading the pack; the market will see extreme polarization. When selecting stocks, focus on the oversubscription multiple (margin trading multiple) and gray market performance; don’t force yourself into unpopular stocks.

In a nutshell: The ”red shoe” mechanism ensures that small investors get a piece of the pie, but the risk of breaking the IPO price is very real. Investing spare cash, diversifying your portfolio, and focusing on fundamentals is far more reliable than "blindly jumping in."

If you’re in a similar situation—wanting to open a compliant Hong Kong and U.S. stock account and plan for both IPO subscriptions and asset allocation—feel free to scan the QR code to contact Qicaiying’s online customer service (WeChat/Phone: 18620388671), and we’ll help you set up a comprehensive, end-to-end compliance solution.

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